Friday, April 06, 2007

Is Newsweek Lying or Misinformed?

Ron Davis pointed us toward a recent Newsweek poll which shows almost half of Americans (48 percent) reject "the scientific theory of evolution." That surprised me, so I clicked over to exam the poll. Here's what Newsweek says:

Nearly half (48 percent) of the public rejects the scientific theory of evolution; one-third (34 percent) of college graduates say they accept the Biblical account of creation as fact.
That is misleading. Newsweek did not ask respondents if they accept or reject the scientific theory of evolution. Nor did they ask if respondents "accept the Biblical account of creation as fact."

Rather, they asked:
12. Which one of the following statements come closest to your views about the origin and development of human beings? Humans developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process (or) Humans developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process (or) God created humans pretty much in the present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so?

30% God guided process
13% God had no part
48% Created in present form (the Biblical account of creation)
9% Other/Don't Know
And:
13. Do you think the scientific theory of evolution is well-supported by evidence and widely accepted within the scientific community?

48% Well-supported
39% Not well-supported
13% Don't Know
So 48 percent of respondents said "God created humans pretty much in the present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so" comes closest to their views about the origin and development of human beings. And 48 percent of respondents "think the scientific theory of evolution is well-supported by evidence and widely accepted within the scientific community."

Which 48 percent "rejects the scientific theory of evolution?" Is saying the "scientific theory of evolution is well-supported by evidence and widely accepted within the scientific community" the same as saying one believes the scientific theory of evolution?

Is saying "God created humans pretty much in the present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so" the same as rejecting the scientific theory of evolution? Or can one believe both? Is saying "God created humans pretty much in the present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so" the same as accepting "the Biblical account of creation as fact?"

We don't know if the questions provided on the web site are all the questions asked. I assume the research firm also gathered basic demographic information (age, gender, education, polltical affiliation, etc.) but Newsweek does not provide it. So it is impossible to tell from where came the conclusion "one-third (34 percent) of college graduates say they accept the Biblical account of creation as fact."

This is a perfect example of why journalism students should be required to take a statistics course or two, and news outlets should have a survey expert on staff to insure the conclusions match the data.